This is weird to me. Two relatively intelligent people can discuss anything related to economics and disagree while rationally stating their points. They may disagree on tax laws, whether we are heading towards inflation or deflation, whether they are bullish or bearish on the stock market, what action the Fed will take, or any other economic issue. But not the housing market. When it comes to the housing market individuals tend to become absolutists. They "know" that the market will collapse into oblivion, or they "know" that prices will always go up. And those are the ones who don't get emotional. The emotional ones quickly reduce to hurling personal insults.
I began to notice this in the comments of my post, My Unbelievable Conversation with a Realtor. This is my most often clicked post currently featured on Interest.com. The increased traffic has led to a more diverse group reading this post; a group not familiar with my writings as some of my more frequent readers.
A couple of comments that were written were a bit more abrasive than usual. Not anything too harsh, but after all, we are a rather touchy-feely group in the PF blogosphere. The two comments that surprised me were, "I guarantee that in 2008 you will be paying more than now." Even the most optimistic stock market prognosticator would avoid saying that they "guarantee" that the market will be higher in 2008.
Another comment was a bit strange, and more abrasive. "I believe it was a fantasy conversation with a fantasy realtor. Do you have a real life? gimme a break!" This was by a commenter named Jim. No, not our friend Jim at Blueprint. Yes, commenter Jim, I spend my time dreaming up fantasy conversations with fantasy realtors. Actually, I wish I was that creative. I could become a Hollywood screenwriter or something. No, it turns out that life is weird enough that I just stick to reality.
Dig a bit deeper and you will find that the emotions run high in this "discussion." After a post on Ben Jones' blog, "The Housing Bubble Blog," a commenter named need 2 leave ca, says, "I love hearing stories about CA going down the drain (picture holding the nose from the smell)." I have been accused of engaging in a bit of Schadenfreude, but never anything this harsh.
As of this writing, the top two Forum Topics on Piggington.com are titled, "Can anything save this sinking ship?" and "Housing bubble bloodbath." The first post begins, "Not that I want to see it saved, because, I hope it crashes to all hell(stupid emotional buyers willing to do ANYTHING to "own a home", and no, I don't feel sorry for them) and it needs to come back to reality." Wow. Bitter much?
On the other side, those who are bullish on the housing market are not any less short on vitriol. Over on Bloodhound Realty Blog, Blogger Greg Swann comments, "The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them. The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish." He refers to those who are bearish on housing as "brown shirts." Not a lighly taken comment for those who know the reference.
Then there's the Pit of Despair. The Craig's List Housing forum. A recent thread had the following post titles,
- "A lot of negative numbers" by Bubble_Sitter (with link provided)
- "numbers are useless" by anonymous
- "You lie because you are weak and afraid" by anonymous
They refer to each other as HHs (housing heads) and BBs (either bubble butts or bubble brains). If someone new to their board asks a serious question about something as trivial as landlord/tenant rights, the thread quickly devolves into name calling.
So, back to my original question. Why the polarization and emotion? On the surface the answer seems clear, we are talking about people's financial lives. After all, a man's home is his castle. Also, for many their house is their largest asset. Sometimes, their only asset. But even as the stock market, and the tech market in particular, was unwinding in the 2000-2002 bear market, I don't remember this level of emotion and name calling. And that affected investors' futures, their livelihoods and their ability to retire.
Your thoughts?
I am no expert (don't own a home myself, although I have in the past) but maybe a home is so obvious. You lose money in the stock market and the only person who may know is you and your broker. You buy a big expensive house and prices drop it's pretty hard to hide. You leave your house on the market for months and it doesn't sell, also easy for the neighbors to see. I think when people are embarassed they tend to act worse.
Posted by: Kim | January 17, 2007 at 01:01 PM
Good point, Kim. The inverse is also true: when the market does well, people who have chosen to rent may be embarrassed and even hold grudges against those who have made a good investment. My wife purchased a condo 10 years ago. It's worth a ton more now...greedily, I still feel a bit envious of folks who bought more expensive property because their investment has been even more prosperous.
Posted by: Nate | January 18, 2007 at 12:28 AM
Very good point, Kim.
Posted by: S/100/30 | January 21, 2007 at 10:20 AM
I just made my comment in "converstation with a realtor."
I will repeat that I think that the dividing line on the issue lies between homeowners/renters. Its simple human nature.
I think the internet and national exposure on the issue of a housing bubble has been a catylyst for rigorous discussion. The Orange County CA housing boom/break only grabbed newspaper headlines. Now, through blogs, we can all say how we feel. Low and behold, you might actually INFLUENCE someone! What a concept!
Real Estate is a need we all share. We can own it or rent it. Ultimately, the market decides what its worth.
I'm 27, a homeowner and a part time real estate salesperson in Las Vegas. I worry more about the scarcity of water in California, Arizona and Nevada than I do about a speculative bubble. You have to think long term. Pricing the market will prove to be tricky for those who try, but if you plan on being a lifetime owner of property, you will probably fair well in purchasing.
In this day where everyone is crying about the middle class being wiped out, yet I see my peers driving and leasing expensive cars, renting a 1900 a month apartment and, istead of saving for the future, buying flat screen TV's. I think those people need to worry more about the money they are losing buying crap than investing in RE.
Those who are saving, thats a good thing!
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