LAMoneyGuy's College Football Computer Ranking Week 12

#1 vs. #2 proved to be a close, if not edge of your seat type of game.  Ohio State prevailed in a game that, outside of a brilliant opening drive by Michigan, they never truly seemed in danger of losing.  USC held up their end against a solid Cal team, setting up the most heated BCS debates since the last time USC had a regular season loss.  That year, USC lost to a huge underdog Cal team, which cost them a spot in the BCS championship game, even after Oklahoma got pounded by K-State in their conference championship game.

It's late November, which means that it's time to gorge on some turkey and debate the BCS.

My picks and results:

(11) West Virginia at (50) Pitt, line: WVU -11.  "West Virginia is capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry. Pitt doesn't have the fire power to keep up.  The 'Eers will cover."  Result:  Steve Slaton and Pat White combine for 399 yards on the ground in a thumping of the Panthers.  'Eers 45, Panthers 27.  Me:  1-0

(54) Iowa at (63) Minnesota, line: Gophers -3.  "Look for a high scoring game.  Bet the over if you can find it.  Also, look for the Gopher's recent momentum to continue at home as they cover the three points."  Result:  I don't know what the over/under was, but a combined 58 points likely covered the over.  Iowa is picked off four times, and coughs up a fumble in a loss.  Gophers 34, Hawkeyes 24.  Me:  2-0.

(1) Michigan at (2) Ohio State, line: OSU -6.5.  "OSU has more explosive playmakers in Smith (who will  wrap up the Heisman with a win Saturday), Ginn and Pittman.  Michigan's playmakers are no slouches in Hart, Henne and Manningham.  Manningham is still working his way back from injury and Michigan needs him in a big way to have a chance.  I'm not convinced that Manningham is back to full form.  Their defense, however, keeps this close as OSU wins a close one, not covering the spread.  Talk of an OSU-UM rematch in the BCS championship game will not go away after Saturday."  Result:  Seriously, how right was I?  OSU has more explosive playmakers?  Check.  Hart, Henne and Manningham so slouches?  Check (Henne21/35, 267 yds, 2 TDs; Hart 23 carries, 142 yds, 3 TDs; Manningham 6 rec, 86 yds, 0 TDs).  Not convinced Manningham is back to full form?  Check.  He had moments of brilliance, and moments where he disappeared.  UM Defense keeps it close in an OSU win?  Well, not so much defense, but an OSU win, not covering the spread.  Talk of OSU-UM rematch not going away.  Big huge check.  Buckeyes 42, Wolves 39.  Me: 3-0

(64)Washington at (42)Washington State, line: Wazzou -8.5.  "The Cougs cover as the Huskies struggle to get on the scoreboard."  Result:  I'm so confused.  Huskies 35, Cougs 32.  Me: 3-1

(15) Arkansas at (90) Mississippi State, line: Hogs -14.5.  "Arkansas will take care of business and win easily, covering the spread."  Result:  Miss State actually won the total yards battle by a hundred.  Arkansas hardly dominated, yet only missed the spread by a half a point.  Hogs 28, Bulldawgs, 14.  Me: 3-2

(26) Maryland at (12) Boston College, line: Eagles -7.  "Boston College may win, but it won't be by more than seven.  Fear the Turtle.  Take the Terps."  Result:  I just like to say, "fear the turtle."  Actually, this one was over before BC's offense even saw the field.  14-0 Eagles on two fumbles recovered for TDs.  By the same guy!  Terps 16, Eagles 38.  Me: 3-3

(19)Cal at (3)USC, line: Trojans -5.5.  "History says to take the Bears.  A 93rd rank total defense by the Bears says take the Trojans.  I'm going with what I'm seeing on the field now, this year.  I'm taking the Trojans."  Result:  Oddly, Cal's defense scored 22% of the team's points.  It was USC's defense, not offense that won this game.  Trojans 23, Bears 9.  Me: 4-3

(53) UCLA at (39) Arizona St, line: Devils -4. "ASU is capable of putting up a whole bunch of points in a hurry, they just haven't done it very often.  I'm counting on the much improved UCLA defense from preventing it from happening on Saturday.  Look for the Bruins to come up with a win, or at least come within four points."  Result:  The Bruin defense held the quick strike Sun Devil offense out of the endzone and kept them to their second lowest point total all year long.  Bruins 24, Devils 12.  Me:  5-3

(5) Rutgers at (61) Cincinnati, line: Scarlet Knights -7.  "Will there be a letdown coming off of the biggest win in their program's history?  Don't count on it.  If they were an electrifying offense, I might say yes.  They are a stuff you with their defesen, pound it down your throat with Ray Rice, type of team.  There will be no let down.  The Scarlet Knights cover."  Result:  Let's define the word meltdown, I mean letdown.  Yikes, It wasn't even close.  Rutgers trailed 17-0, then 27-3.  Their only TD came while down 30-3 with five minutes left to play.  It was garbage time.  Scarlet Knights 11, Bearcats 30.  Me:  5-4.

See what happens when I take both the Bruins and the Trojans?  I have a winning week.  Just barely.  I'm now 31-26-2 for the season.

Notes on the Rankings:

Ohio State is the obvious #1.  USC is #2 by virtue of strength of schedule.  Michigan's SOS is hurt by MSU, Ball St and Vandy.  USC's weakest opponents are Stanford and Washington and WSU.  I hear Wisconsin fans are upset about having a 1 loss year and being left out of any BCS game.  I understand their frustration, but they need a better out of conference schedule than W. Ill, Bowling Green, SDSU and Buffalo.

Louisville at #3 may be surprising, just as Florida at #5.  The margin forom #3 to #5 is extremely slim margin.  Playing and beating a bad 1-AA Western Carolina team 62-0 hurts Florida in my ranking.  I suspect it does the same in at least a couple of the BCS computers, let alone voters.

I don't understand the media love for Notre Dame.  Yes, a win over USC would be impressive, but I would take I would still take a one loss Florida, Arkansas, Louisville or West Virginia in the BCS title game before Notre Dame.  Well, it is Notre Dame we're talking about.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Rank	Week 12		W	L
1	Ohio State	2.4336	12	0
2	Southern Cal	2.3838	9	1
3	Louisville	2.2579	9	1
4	Michigan	2.2540	11	1
5	Florida	2.2530	10	1
6	Boise St	2.0513	11	0
7	West Virginia	2.0448	9	1
8	Boston College	2.0016	9	2
9	Texas	2.0009	9	2
10	Virginia Tech	1.9908	9	2
11	Notre Dame	1.9811	10	1
12	LSU	1.9688	9	2
13	Arkansas	1.9673	10	1
14	Auburn	1.9571	10	2
15	Oklahoma	1.9482	9	2
16	Wisconsin	1.9063	11	1
17	Rutgers	1.9052	9	1
18	Brigham Young	1.8482	9	2
19	Tennessee	1.8064	8	3
20	Clemson	1.7583	8	3
21	Nebraska	1.7177	8	3
22	California	1.7024	8	3
23	Texas A&M	1.6713	8	3
24	Maryland	1.6120	8	3
25	Georgia Tech	1.6116	8	2
26	TCU	1.6095	8	2
27	Wake Forest	1.5958	9	2
28	Hawai`i	1.5525	9	2
29	Houston	1.5199	9	3
30	Missouri	1.5086	7	4
31	Penn State	1.4824	8	4
32	Georgia	1.4655	7	4
33	South Carolina	1.4579	6	5
34	Oregon St	1.4394	7	4
35	Navy	1.4307	8	3
36	Tulsa	1.4237	7	4
37	Nevada	1.4224	8	3
38	Kentucky	1.4208	7	4
39	Oregon	1.4178	7	4
40	Texas Tech	1.4061	7	5
41	Arizona	1.3932	6	5
42	Cincinnati	1.3904	6	5
43	Ohio U.	1.3721	8	3
44	Oklahoma St	1.3510	6	5
45	UCLA	1.3299	6	5
46	Kansas St	1.3282	7	5
47	Florida St	1.3261	6	5
48	South Florida	1.3148	7	4
49	Central Michigan	1.3121	7	4
50	Southern Miss	1.2967	7	4
51	Purdue	1.2822	8	4
52	Arizona St	1.2788	6	5
53	East Carolina	1.2720	6	5
54	Washington St	1.2719	6	6
55	Alabama	1.2689	6	6
56	Utah	1.2581	7	4
57	Middle Tennessee St	1.2474	7	4
58	Pittsburgh	1.2439	6	5
59	Washington	1.1875	5	7
60	Western Michigan	1.1717	7	4
61	Minnesota	1.1709	6	6
62	Kansas	1.1703	6	5
63	Iowa	1.1655	6	6
64	Northern Illinois	1.1643	6	4
65	Rice	1.1635	6	5
66	San José St	1.1186	6	4
67	SMU	1.0940	5	5
68	Wyoming	1.0777	6	6
69	Virginia	1.0741	5	5
70	Miami FL	1.0524	5	6
71	Indiana	1.0346	5	7
72	Kent St	1.0202	6	5
73	Fresno St	1.0188	3	7
74	New Mexico	1.0128	5	6
75	Air Force	0.9657	3	6
76	Syracuse	0.9620	4	7
77	Akron	0.9600	5	6
78	Arkansas St	0.9512	6	5
79	Connecticut	0.9473	4	6
80	UTEP	0.9346	5	6
81	Vanderbilt	0.9255	4	8
82	Colorado St	0.9194	4	5
83	Northwestern	0.9065	4	8
84	Michigan St	0.9020	4	8
85	Baylor	0.8946	4	8
86	North Carolina St	0.8937	3	8
87	Troy	0.8928	5	5
88	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.8907	4	5
89	Marshall	0.8837	5	6
90	Tulane	0.8714	4	7
91	Mississippi St	0.8643	3	8
92	Iowa St	0.8350	4	8
93	Bowling Green	0.8315	4	7
94	Mississippi	0.8203	3	8
95	Alabama-Birmingham	0.7875	3	7
96	Florida Atlantic	0.7747	4	6
97	North Carolina	0.7691	2	9
98	Idaho	0.7568	4	7
99	Army	0.7303	3	8
100	Toledo	0.7265	3	6
101	Colorado	0.7237	2	9
102	Louisiana Tech	0.7189	3	8
103	Ball St	0.7113	3	7
104	Central Florida	0.7070	3	8
105	Illinois	0.7004	2	10
106	Buffalo	0.6976	2	9
107	Stanford	0.6820	1	10
108	North Texas	0.6805	3	8
109	San Diego St	0.6640	2	8
110	Utah St	0.6441	1	10
111	Louisiana-Monroe	0.5915	2	8
112	Temple	0.5856	1	11
113	New Mexico St	0.5837	2	8
114	Duke	0.5331	0	11
115	UNLV	0.5294	1	10
116	Miami OH	0.5135	1	10
117	Eastern Michigan	0.4963	1	10
118	Memphis	0.4788	1	10
119	Florida Int'l	0.4119	0	10

Comments

[MBT Shoes]

It's so nice to have you do all of the research for us. It makes our decision making so much easier!! Thanks.