Well, well. This weekend saw a couple of upsets, although not in the top 10. It did, however see a few highly ranked teams struggle to beat seemingly lesser foes. Let's take a look at my picks from Friday.
Tennessee vs Memphis, "Memphis no longer has D'Angelo Williams, thus they no longer have a shot at keeping this close." Result: Tennessee 41, Memphis 7. I would say I nailed that one.
Wisconsin at Indiana, "Wisconsin will win by at least two TDs." Result: Wisconsin 52, Indiana 17.
Notre Dame vs Purdue, "The Irish win at home." Result: Notre Dame 35, Purdue 21. Yes, I didn't go out on a limb. ND was favored, but Purdue was coming in undefeated. 3 for 3 so far.
Alabama at Florida, "Alabama isn't so good. Florida is." Result: Florida 28, Alabama 13. I'll take credit for this one because Florida beat the spread, but this game was much closer than the score indicates.
Oregon at ASU, "I think the Devils pull off the upset. Result: Oregon 48, ASU 13. Ouch. Well, at least when I'm wrong, I'm REALLY wrong. After last week's loss to Cal, ASU Quarterback, Rudy Carpenter commented, "I guess I'm not as good as I thought I was." Man was he right. This game puts me 4 for 5.
Houston at Miami, "They'll still beat Houston, but it won't be impressive." Result: Miami FL 14, Houston 13. C'mon, could I have been more correct? That game was almost the definition of an unimpressive win. 5 for 6.
USC at Washington State, "Look for a close first half, and for USC to break it open in the second." Result: USC 28, WSU 22. I'll take credit for the win, as I don't do against the spread. But I was wrong about USC breaking the game open at any time. WSU was in this all the way to the last second hail mary attempt.
Ohio State at Iowa, "OSU big." Result: OSU 38, Iowa 17. 7 for 8.
Michigan at Minnesota, "Minnesota's not that good. Wolverines win." Result: Michigan 28, Gophers 14. Right again! 8 for 9.
Georgia at Ol' Miss, "Ol' Miss won't give us any answers. They're miserable." Result: Georgia 14, Rebs 9. What is wrong with Georgia? That's two close games in a row against atrocious teams. Auburn and USC had close games against lesser opponents, but South Carolina and Washington State are far better teams than Colorado and Ol' Miss. I'll take credit for the win, but I would have lost in Vegas. 9 for 10.
Stanford at UCLA, "There should be nothing close about a game with Stanford." Result: UCLA 31, Stanford 0. UCLA's first shutout since blanking the Trees in 2004. I'm hoping Stanford can keep anybody within three touchdowns, other than San Jose State. 10 for 11.
Wow, weeks like this make me want to go put some money down. Of course, this was not against the spread. I think against the spread I miss USC, Georgia, maybe Miami.
Regarding my rankings. I'm actually just happy that the results make logical sense. Sure, Auburn should be higher, Texas too. And Rutgers is having a great season, but I'm not sure that they are a top ten team. OSU and Michigan continue to carry the Big 10 torch, and just may be the two best teams in the country. The next Big 10 team is #23 Wisconsin. If Florida wins out they will be #1 or 2. If USC and either OSU or Michigan also win out, it will be interesting to see how that shakes out.
Here are my rankings for this week:
| Rank | Week 5 | W | L | |
| 1 | Ohio State | 2.721998 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 2.643438 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Southern Cal | 2.577521 | 4 | 0 |
| 4 | Florida | 2.514426 | 5 | 0 |
| 5 | Oregon | 2.42659 | 4 | 0 |
| 6 | Louisville | 2.391532 | 4 | 0 |
| 7 | Auburn | 2.386524 | 5 | 0 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 2.106557 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 2.089927 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 | Rutgers | 2.062957 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 2.009179 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Missouri | 2.006535 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | West Virginia | 1.982402 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | California | 1.933609 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | Clemson | 1.902537 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Boise St | 1.882232 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 | Washington | 1.847184 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Texas | 1.819411 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | LSU | 1.765247 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Boston College | 1.752496 | 4 | 1 |
| 21 | Texas Tech | 1.732051 | 4 | 1 |
| 22 | Georgia | 1.722983 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | 1.701206 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 1.685888 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 | Air Force | 1.685751 | 2 | 1 |
| 26 | Iowa | 1.619521 | 4 | 1 |
| 27 | Navy | 1.607285 | 4 | 1 |
| 28 | Nebraska | 1.599661 | 4 | 1 |
| 29 | Florida St | 1.57923 | 3 | 1 |
| 30 | Georgia Tech | 1.574055 | 3 | 1 |
| 31 | Arkansas | 1.573068 | 3 | 1 |
| 32 | Pittsburgh | 1.563713 | 4 | 1 |
| 33 | Texas A&M | 1.558715 | 4 | 1 |
| 34 | Washington St | 1.555781 | 3 | 2 |
| 35 | Virginia Tech | 1.539566 | 4 | 1 |
| 36 | Oklahoma St | 1.531452 | 3 | 1 |
| 37 | Houston | 1.528228 | 4 | 1 |
| 38 | Brigham Young | 1.519752 | 3 | 2 |
| 39 | Tulsa | 1.508823 | 3 | 1 |
| 40 | TCU | 1.500411 | 3 | 1 |
| 41 | UCLA | 1.423979 | 3 | 1 |
| 42 | Southern Miss | 1.4025 | 3 | 1 |
| 43 | Maryland | 1.39475 | 3 | 1 |
| 44 | Penn State | 1.385831 | 3 | 2 |
| 45 | Purdue | 1.383198 | 4 | 1 |
| 46 | Arizona St | 1.328029 | 3 | 2 |
| 47 | South Carolina | 1.318298 | 3 | 2 |
| 48 | Alabama | 1.314589 | 3 | 2 |
| 49 | Kentucky | 1.288645 | 3 | 2 |
| 50 | Northern Illinois | 1.270439 | 3 | 2 |
| 51 | Michigan St | 1.247342 | 3 | 2 |
| 52 | Syracuse | 1.245925 | 3 | 2 |
| 53 | Miami FL | 1.239257 | 2 | 2 |
| 54 | Kansas St | 1.21247 | 3 | 2 |
| 55 | Kent St | 1.195826 | 3 | 2 |
| 56 | Bowling Green | 1.195536 | 3 | 2 |
| 57 | Western Michigan | 1.190531 | 3 | 1 |
| 58 | Minnesota | 1.183939 | 2 | 3 |
| 59 | Iowa St | 1.177718 | 3 | 2 |
| 60 | Ohio U. | 1.16214 | 2 | 3 |
| 61 | Nevada | 1.140218 | 3 | 2 |
| 62 | San José St | 1.140204 | 3 | 1 |
| 63 | Colorado St | 1.134408 | 3 | 1 |
| 64 | Utah | 1.113543 | 3 | 2 |
| 65 | Fresno St | 1.104403 | 1 | 3 |
| 66 | New Mexico | 1.098377 | 2 | 3 |
| 67 | North Carolina St | 1.069956 | 2 | 2 |
| 68 | Arizona | 1.060829 | 2 | 3 |
| 69 | Army | 1.055926 | 2 | 3 |
| 70 | Oregon St | 1.049828 | 2 | 2 |
| 71 | Middle Tennessee St | 1.037485 | 3 | 2 |
| 72 | Arkansas St | 1.023597 | 2 | 2 |
| 73 | Virginia | 1.00466 | 2 | 2 |
| 74 | Connecticut | 1.004569 | 2 | 2 |
| 75 | Kansas | 1.000169 | 3 | 2 |
| 76 | SMU | 0.982245 | 3 | 2 |
| 77 | South Florida | 0.978419 | 3 | 2 |
| 78 | UTEP | 0.972064 | 2 | 2 |
| 79 | Cincinnati | 0.967096 | 2 | 3 |
| 80 | Indiana | 0.964348 | 2 | 3 |
| 81 | Central Michigan | 0.947548 | 2 | 3 |
| 82 | Baylor | 0.947139 | 2 | 3 |
| 83 | Illinois | 0.942196 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | Alabama-Birmingham | 0.910462 | 2 | 3 |
| 85 | Akron | 0.898695 | 2 | 3 |
| 86 | Rice | 0.895504 | 1 | 4 |
| 87 | North Carolina | 0.853101 | 1 | 3 |
| 88 | Hawai`i | 0.836089 | 1 | 3 |
| 89 | East Carolina | 0.829405 | 1 | 3 |
| 90 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.822014 | 2 | 2 |
| 91 | Toledo | 0.820658 | 2 | 3 |
| 92 | Vanderbilt | 0.813671 | 2 | 3 |
| 93 | Mississippi St | 0.791097 | 1 | 4 |
| 94 | Buffalo | 0.779703 | 1 | 3 |
| 95 | Tulane | 0.776309 | 1 | 3 |
| 96 | Marshall | 0.77588 | 1 | 3 |
| 97 | Mississippi | 0.760844 | 1 | 4 |
| 98 | New Mexico St | 0.745465 | 2 | 2 |
| 99 | North Texas | 0.743301 | 1 | 4 |
| 100 | Central Florida | 0.742047 | 1 | 3 |
| 101 | Idaho | 0.713355 | 2 | 3 |
| 102 | Wyoming | 0.711518 | 1 | 4 |
| 103 | Florida Atlantic | 0.701675 | 1 | 4 |
| 104 | Louisiana Tech | 0.685258 | 1 | 3 |
| 105 | Northwestern | 0.660732 | 2 | 3 |
| 106 | Troy | 0.648847 | 1 | 4 |
| 107 | Stanford | 0.647346 | 0 | 5 |
| 108 | Memphis | 0.556654 | 1 | 3 |
| 109 | Colorado | 0.524383 | 0 | 5 |
| 110 | UNLV | 0.521736 | 1 | 3 |
| 111 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.509783 | 1 | 3 |
| 112 | Temple | 0.505807 | 0 | 5 |
| 113 | San Diego St | 0.496768 | 0 | 4 |
| 114 | Duke | 0.490168 | 0 | 4 |
| 115 | Ball St | 0.473995 | 1 | 4 |
| 116 | Florida Int'l | 0.450012 | 0 | 5 |
| 117 | Utah St | 0.447551 | 0 | 5 |
| 118 | Miami OH | 0.432822 | 0 | 5 |
| 119 | Eastern Michigan | 0.33081 | 0 | 5 |
Made $40 on the VT/GT game, but I ain't happy my hokies lost :-(.
Posted by: 2million | October 01, 2006 at 01:14 PM
Go Big 10.
Posted by: S/100/30 | October 01, 2006 at 03:23 PM
I'm actually just happy that the results make logical sense. Sure, Auburn should be higher, Texas too.
Naaah... if you believe in the statistical integrity of your ranking, then believe in it.
Why should Texas be higher ranked? They haven't accomplished anything yet this year. They've beat 1-4 North Texas, 1-4 Rice, and 2-2 Iowa State - a combined 3-10. And those three wins? Rice over 2-3 Army, North Texas over 2-2 SMU, and Iowa State over 1-3 Toledo and 0-3 UNLV - a combined 5-11.
Rankings should be based on performance, not promise.
This much is true in football, just like it's true in finance: Evaluate the data dispassionately, and you'll do better than if you value things on tradition, superstition, or luck.
Posted by: Portland Money Guy | October 03, 2006 at 02:26 PM
It's so nice to have you do all of the research for us. It makes our decision making so much easier!! Thanks.
Posted by: MBT Shoes | July 23, 2011 at 01:08 AM