Wedding Stuff: Reducing the Guest List

Among all of the decisions that we will be making as we plan our wedding, the single largest decision, as it relates to how much we will spend, will be the guest list.  We both have fairly large families, and even larger networks of family friends who are probably more like family than many blood relatives.  We both have friends from work, college and high school.  So how to cut?

We are in the preliminary stages of putting together the list.  We have only included relatives so far, and are at 87.  However, I need to talk to my parents because I know that I have first cousins in Hawaii that I should include.  I have a hard time seeing our final list under 300.  Here's where the A/B/C systems are critical.  I will also be running a projected attendance rate for each guest.  By the way, I would love any advice from anyone who has been through this before.

So, here's the plan.  Each guest will be assigned an A, B or C.  "A"s are invited, no questions asked.  "B"s will likely get invited, but it will depend on factors such as the venue, the price per plate, the expected attendance rate of the As, and of course, our budget.  "C"s will only get invited if we believe the attendance rate of As and Bs will be much lower than expected.

The projected attendance rate is a somehwhat arbitrarily created number between 0%-100% based on our relationship with the guest, the distance they would have to travel, circumstances like small children to care for, and their "flakiness" factor.

So, here's what the list looks like:

As you can see, I'm just doing a weighted average of the guests based on the "likelihood" factor.  The low percentage ones are the cousins from Hawaii with children.  The 90% cousins are local, and we see them pretty frequently.  I would be surprised if they didn't make it, but you can never really say 100%, except for immediate family, and even then, I suppose it's not really 100%.  So, the way that I calculate it is, say row #10, my cousin and his girlfriend.  We expect them to show, so they are a 90%.  When I add them up, they count as 1.8 people.  If I add 20 cousins with a 90% probability, I get 18 expected guests.  I would say that is likely pretty accurate.

Did anyone else do any calculations like this?  I am hoping that this will ease my fiancee about the numbers that we expect.  If all we are looking at is the total number invited, we will lose sight of the fact that we expect a certain number not to show.  Instead of just saying, well, 75% will make it, I wanted to be more specific on the expected attendance rate.

Comments

[Frugal Homemaker]

Oh, I feel your pain. I had nearly 200 people at my wedding, and that was the cut down list.

It seems like you have to invite so many people- ie- you can't invite one cousin and not invite another. But you also don't want to cut your best friend of 15 years because Cousin Merel who you have not seen in 9 years will be able to go. Aghhh! I've been married three years, and I still remember how horrible it was!

More people will say yes than you think, so be prepred for that. I thought less would say yes on the RSVP card. And some of my guests brought random guests- ie: Bill and Sue were invited, but they RSVP's 4 people- they brought their friends Mary and Tom, who we've never met!

Guess that is not helpful- sorry. I think the guest list was one of the most aganoizing things of my frugal wedding!

[lamoneyguy]

I know, that's what I keep hearing. My brother didn't invite a couple of first cousins because we literally hadn't seen them in 10 years. Of course, my Mom got a phone call. Family politics... the worst!

[Amanda]

Yes - this is probably the most complicated thing that we did in terms of planning our wedding. It's tricky business, but worth the time and effort you put in. A little extra orginization (and calculations) goes a long way towards ensuring you stay on budget!

[Holy Prepuce]

Yes! I did exactly the same thing with assigning percentages and treating people as fractional attendees to compute an expected total. My now-wife and her family all made fun of me, but my prediction turned out to be very close on the mark. And I thought I was the only person out there nerdy enough to do this...

[sara Charlton]

I know this is an old post but could you possible show me or tell me how you entered in the formula in excel? I'm new to the program and having some trouble setting up the weighted average thing.

Thanks!
Sara